82 - Oral Communication
Feb. 26, 2021, 1:45 p.m. - 3:15 p.m., Rome


Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Disease Worsening in Patients with COVID-19
G. Gerotziafas1, T. Sergentanis2, G. Voiriot1, L. Lassel1, C. Papageorgiou1, A. Elabbadi1, M. Turpin1, P. Vandreden3, 1, L. Papageorgiou1, T. Psaltopoulou2, E. Terpos2, M. A. Dimopoulos2, A. Parrot1, J. Cadranel1, G. Pialloux1, I. Elalamy1, M. Fartoukh1, Presenter: G. Gerotziafas1 (1Paris, 2Athens, 3Gennevilliers)

Background and Objective
The prospective observational study conducted at the COVID-19 center of Tenon University Hospital in Paris aimed to develop a risk assessment model (RAM) for early identification of COVID-19 patients at risk for worsening disease.
Patients with confirmed COVID-19 (n=420) were devided in derivation (n=300) and validation (n=120) cohorts and stratified to those hospitalized at the conventional ward (C-group) and those with worsening disease (W-group). The study end point was disease worsening. All patients were routinely evaluated with full blood count, prothrombin time (PT), fibrinogen, D-Dimers, antithrombin and protein C activity. Data from the first hospitalization day at the conventional ward or the ICU were analyzed.
Obesity, hypertention, diabetes and male gender, increased fibrinogen and D-Dimers, thrombocytopenia, AT-deficiency, lymphopenia and compensated DIC-ISTH score ≥5 were significant risk factors for worsening disease. The COMPASS-COVID-19 risk assessment model (RAM) derived from multivariate analysis includes: obesity, gender, compensated DIC, hemoglobin, and lymphocyte count. The score has a very good discriminating capacity to stratify patients at high and low risk for worsening disease, with AUC value at 0.77, sensitivity 81% and specificity 60%. Application of the COMPASS-COVID-19 score at the validation cohort showed 96% sensitivity and 45% specificity.
The COMPASS-COVID-19 score could serve as an accurate clinical decision tool for an easy identification of 80% COVID-19 patients at risk for disease worsening leading to prompt application of compassionate treatments including antithrombotic agents.
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